The number of Indian students planning to study in the US is expected to reach over 1 million every year by the year 2030. The rise will happen amidst an alarming drop in the US college-aged population, a phenomenon called the “enrollment cliff”.

Experts forecast that the US could be affected by this cliff as soon as 2025. This will potentially lead to a 15-20% increase in the number of Indian students by 2026, in comparison to 2023 data where 268,923 Indian students enrolled themselves in universities across the USA.

The enrollment cliff is the result of the late 2000s economic slump. Economic insecurity during that time caused a sharp decline in birth rates that resulted in a constant drop in the K-12 numbers of students over the years. This negative trend is going to hit college registration by 2025, around 16-17 years after the 2008 recession.

US undergraduate student enrollment declines

As per the US Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics, enrolment of undergraduate students reached 18.1 million in 2010-11. Since then, it has consistently dropped, with a sharper decline during the pandemic’s first academic year.

Data received from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center suggests that undergraduate students’ enrolment was just below 15.1 million as of Fall 2022. This demonstrates a direct 4% drop, with almost 1.23 million American undergraduate students in comparison to 2020.

Universities woo international students

The squeezing numbers of US high school graduates have further deepened the crisis. In response to this grim scenario, American universities have expedited international student recruitment efforts for the past couple of years.

A report reveals that an impressive number of Indian students landed in the US to seek higher education in 2023 which marks the third successive year of such a trend. There was a 35% boost in Indian students in comparison to 2022, with 2,68,923 students enrolled in the academic year 2022-23. At present, Indian students include more than a quarter of the 1 million international students studying in the US.

Number of Indian students studying in America

Number of Indian Students in US       Year

167,582                                               2020-21

199,182                                               2021-22

268,923                                               2022-23

Expected 1 million*                            2029-30

Source: Open Doors Report 2022, 2023 + Expert s’ Forecast